Around the Wicket - 4th test Preview

So the test series is about to draw to a close, as the 4th test begins in Nagpur on Thursday. The equation is simple. Anything but an Australian win sees the Border/Gavaskar trophy back on Indian soil. For the Indians, they only need to draw the test to win the series.

Now, if you’re a punting man (or woman), here’s what you need to know. A series win for the Indians is currently paying $1.26 with TAB Sportsbet, while the drawn series is paying $3.65. If you want to bet on the test result – and Indian win is $3.40, while a draw is $1.90. An Australian win, is obviously $3.65 – the same as the drawn series.

The reason the odds are so high for either side winning is the wicket. Nobody has been sure what would happen in Nagpur, as this is the first test ever to be played at this venue. The early talk coming from India is that it will be (and be prepared to be blown off your seats...) a low, slow pitch that will favour spinners, and do nothing for the seamers. And with nothing but sunshine forecast for the 5 days, I wouldn’t expect there to be any downpours to freshen the pitch up at all.

For India, they know what they have to do. Play for a draw. If they win the toss, there will be no sporting declaration. Even the aggressive captaincy of Dhoni will be toned down a notch, and if India does bat first, they could conceivably bat into the 3rd day. The only change they will make to the side is to bring Harbhajan back at the expense of the retired Anil Kumble. There must still be questions over Bhaji’s toe, so I would be directing Brett Lee to hit him on it as often as possible. Other than that, it should be business as usual for India, and it will take one of Australia’s bowlers to have a career defining moment to take 20 Indian wickets required for the win.

Which begs the question – who plays for Australia? Will Krezja come in for White? Will they both play? Will Clark be dropped for his lack of wickets? Is Peter Siddle worth another go at the Indians? What about Doug Bollinger? Should we play 2 spinners? You can bet your bottom dollar every one of those questions is going through the selectors’ collective mind right now – and I don’t expect them to make any decisions until right before the test begins. What would I do? Well, I think Krezja has to play – he bowls off spin for a living, unlike the part timers that have been given the ball in the 3 tests before hand. The part timers haven’t done the job or got results, so Krezja has to play. And I would drop White. I would also give Katich more of a bowl than he has been getting, and I would ask Watson to bowl maybe 10 to 15 kph slower than he is.

Can Australia win? It’s doubtful – but so long as there is eleven versus eleven – it’s possible. Expect Brett Lee to leave nothing behind, and I suspect Ricky Ponting and Matthew Hayden will make big runs. For India – it will be same old same old, Harbhajan and Mishra will bowl the bulk of the overs, and the batsmen will make big runs. However, with the in-form Gambhir gone – that could upset the batting order enough to give Australia a chance at getting into the middle order early on. And that – is our best chance.