Around the Wicket - 1st Test Preview

OK – so on to the real test cricket. After a couple of warm up games against a side that couldn’t beat 4 of the 6 state sides, it’s time for the clash of the heavyweights. 1 v 2. And I’m excited. I think this series may prove to be one of the most challenging of all time, and may be decided by... wait for it... runs from the tail enders. Both top 6’s are very good, both pace bowling attacks are very good. Neither side has a decent spinner, so what it comes down to is what’s left: fielding, and tail end runs. Which, if you ask me, gives Australia the edge in the series. Lee, Johnson and Siddle will consistently make more runs than Ntini, Steyn, and Morkel, and I’ll back our all round fielding against theirs any day. It’s hard to imagine three better fielders than Clarke, Symonds, and Ponting.

I think the first test will be the big test for the Aussies. The Saffers have talked up their pace attack, and even Mikey Holding reckons it’s comparable to the attack he used to play in. Please. Anyhow – they’ll get their chance on what is expected to be a fast, bouncy, WACA wicket. However – they’re using the same strip they used in a recent Sheffield Shield game between the Vics and the Warriors, which saw the Vics chase down 321 off 72 overs on the 4th day for the loss of just 4 wickets. So from that, I think we can safely guess that from late day 2 onwards, it’s going to be good for batting. Being that it is a “brought back” wicket, there may be a touch less pace on it than there otherwise would be too. I think both sides might struggle to take 20 wickets here, and that being the case, I think you have to pick a spinner to break up the monotony.

I’m not sure if the South Africans will pick a spinner though. Paul Harris has just missed three weeks with a fractured thumb, although he did take 4 WA second XI wickets in the recent tour match. Odds are he will probably play, but will the Proteas be swayed by the talk about the so called green WACA pitch? I think a likely XI for the Saffers will be: Smith, McKenzie, Amla, Kallis, Prince, DeVilliers, Boucher, Harris, Morkel, Steyn, Ntini.

The interesting thing about that side is the top 6 batsmen. Not one of them averages more than 40 against the Aussies, and only Prince, Kallis and McKenzie average over 30. Only Kallis and Prince have ever made hundreds against the Aussies. Hashim Amla, who will bat at 3, has never even played a test against Australia, so right off the bat – there is a lot of pressure on the South African top 6.

Australia’s top 6, on the other hand, have enjoyed the South African bowling over the years. Ponting averages 64 against them, Hussey 60, and Hayden 49. Ponting and Hayden have 13 tons between them against the South Africans. Ponting has twice scored a century in each innings against them. Symonds has a dismal record against South Africa, averaging just 24. And who will forget big Ntini smacking Roy in the gob over there in the dark one test? He’ll be keen to do well, because Watson has definitely got claims to the number 6 spot, and wouldn’t be very far away from it right now. Having said that, I don’t think we’ll see any changes to the Aussies top 6 or 7 from the warm ups against New Zealand, but it’s the bowling line up that might still be unsettled. Will Siddle come in for the injured Clark? Will Watson come in as the 3rd seamer and bolster the batting, thereby allowing Krezja to regain his spot in the XI too? Will Krezja play if Watson doesn’t?

Likely Aussie side: Hayden, Katich, Ponting, Hussey, Clarke, Symonds, Haddin, Krezja, Lee, Johnson, Siddle.

So there it is, I’m tipping a draw here, as the WACA pitch fizzles out into a batsman’s paradise sometime late day 2, early day 3. I Expect Ponting to start off with a ton, and Lee to get Smith early with a full inswinger. Mitch Johnson will be our best bowler, and Dale Steyn will prove to all and sundry that he is heavily over rated. Once again, Kallis will struggle, and Matthew Hayden may begin the free fall into the descent of his career.

The odds:

Australia $2.00
Draw $3.50
South Africa $3.25