Mathematician rates Socceroos WC chances - Sports News - Fanatics - the world's biggest events

Mathematician rates Socceroos WC chances

29/05/2010 04:08:43 PM Comments (0)

The Socceroos have almost a 45 per cent chance of progressing from their group at the World Cup but are only a 1.6 per cent hope of winning the tournament, according to a Swiss mathematician.

Roger Kaufmann has generated probabilities for every team in South Africa using his "dynamic sport analysis" system, which takes in data including each team's current world ranking, goals scored at home and away and upcoming matches.

His system predicts Spain and Brazil are most likely to meet each other in the final of the tournament.

According to the latest update on his website, the mathematician calculates that Brazil has 15.4 per cent chance of becoming world champion, slightly edging out Spain which has 15.2 per cent possibility of winning.

Kaufmann says Australia have a 44.9 per cent chance of finishing top two in Group D and progressing to the last 16, as they did in Germany in 2006.

Group D favourites Germany have a 56.4 chance of qualifying for the knockout stages, ahead of Ghana (50.8) and Serbia (48).

According to the analysis, the Socceroos are a 9.9 per cent chance to reach the semi-finals and a 3.9 percent at reaching the final.

At the moment, North Korea stands the smallest chance of lifting the cup, with just 0.1 per cent possibility of winning.

New Zealand, South Korea, Honduras and Japan all have less than a per cent chance of winning.

However, as Kaufmann said on his website www.rogerkaufmann.ch, "such possibilities change with each single match played."

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